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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-12T01:14:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-12T01:14Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47534/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the Southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 in association with a long-duration C5.9-class flare from AR 14485 (S10W68) with corresponding circular EUV wave seen best in GOES SUVI 284 imagery starting around 2026-07-12T01:00Z. This eruption is located to the South of a prominent coronal hole, resulting in this CME likely being deflected. This CME overlaps with CME: 2026-0712T02:12Z. This subsequent CME (CME: 2026-07-12T02:12Z) appears to accelerate the Northern portion of this ongoing event (CME: 2026-07-12T02:14Z), greatly changing its morphology in later frames.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-15T21:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 600
Longitude (deg): 34W
Latitude (deg): 7S
Half-angular width (deg): 38

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 62.32 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-07-13T06:41Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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